000 AXNT20 KNHC 040559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N36W TO 1N38W...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 7N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N28W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N35W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 2N41W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 15W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 24N90W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 20N93W TO 18N93W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-94W. CHANCES THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SW BASIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SE CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR W ATLC. THE RIDGE ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N76W WHICH EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NE GULF AND PROVIDES E-SE FLOW OF 5-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN AS WELL AS THE NW GULF. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND TROPICAL STORM BORIS OVER THE E PAC. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 79W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W AND S OF 18N W OF 84W WHERE THERE IS A WIND MAX OF 20 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO 25N58W TO 22N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR