000 AXNT20 KNHC 040003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W TO 02N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY. GLOBAL MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 10N THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N13W TO 04N26W TO 06N33W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 04N38W W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 06W- 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 20W- 26W...AND FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 48W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N94.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 23N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-94W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS OVER THE E GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 88W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SURFACE LOW TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO HAS CONVECTION DUE TO T.S. BORIS CENTERED OVER THE E PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. BORIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JAMAICA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N55W TO 24N60W TO 23N65W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 08N BETWEEN 303-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N63W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA