000 AXNT20 KNHC 031749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N24W TO 13N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY. GLOBAL MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 10N THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N18W TO 07N24W TO 08N33W TO 02N43W TO 01N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 47W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N90W SW TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT...TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAXIMUM DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 80W-95W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BIG BEND REGION. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N98W PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. COASTLINE INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N86W. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING GENERALLY W OF 80W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 12N IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT S OF 17N E OF 77W. AN INTRUSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-76W AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON... HOWEVER A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE WEST WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. AT THE SURFACE...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND ALONG 22N WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. AS EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR 35N63W WITH A 1007 MB LOW COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. LARGELY OCCLUDED TO THE NORTH OF 32N...TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW TO 25N60W TO 23N66W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE WESTWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE W OF 59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N77W. WHILE THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WATERS E OF 50W AS A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N36W. 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