000 AXNT20 KNHC 031047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS ALONG 10N29W TO 2N30W...MOVING WEST NEAR 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 7N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N17W AND CONTINUES TO 8N23W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N28W...IT THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N33W TO 4N41W TO 2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ABOVE-MENTIONED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N E OF 28W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 32W-37W...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 34W-41W AND FROM 2N-5N W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN FROM 25N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 17N94W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PAC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 90W AS WELL AS S OF 22N E OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ANOTHER NEAR 33N75W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF TO SUPPORT SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF...RIDGING ALONG WITH 5-15 KT E-SE WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF ON WED MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND NE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN WHICH ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 82W. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE FORMER TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MERGED WITH THE MONSOON FLOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 200 NM OF COLOMBIA COAST WHERE THERE IS A WIND MAX OF 20 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN BEING INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE E PAC AND THE MONSOON. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH IS FOUND IN A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER NE ADJACENT WATERS...HOWEVER MAY EXTEND INLAND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N54W TO 23N64W TO 23N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR