000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS ALONG 11N29W TO 2N32W...MOVING WEST NEAR 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS ENGULFING THE W-NW IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 6N. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 72W FROM 1N-10N...MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-75W AND FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 66W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 82W FROM 1N-12N...MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND NORTHERN PANAMA...SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 77W- 85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 9N17W AND CONTINUES TO 8N23W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N29W...IT THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N33W TO 2N42W TO 0N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ABOVE-MENTIONED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 19W-28W...FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 32W-39W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 35W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN FROM 27N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PAC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 90W AS WELL AS S OF 22N E OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF TO SUPPORT SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF...RIDGING ALONG WITH 5-15 KT E-SE WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF ON WED MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN COVERS THE REGION W OF 70W WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN WHICH ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 81W. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. SAHARAN DRY AIR HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN BEING INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE E PAC AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH IS FOUND IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO 23N67W TO 26N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 53W-57W. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR