000 AXNT20 KNHC 021725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N25W TO 2N30W MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING ALONG 69/70W FROM 2N-10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N76W OVER COLOMBIA TO NEAR 3N77W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NORTH EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION BELOW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N40W TO ALONG THE THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-49W WHERE IT TURNS S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 33W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA THROUGH THE CENTER NEAR 25N94W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 91W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER GEORGIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 90W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE TROUGH MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N78W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD GENERATE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FURTHER PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W-78W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N61W 24N70W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM W OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S THROUGH TUE AND STALL FROM NEAR 32N56W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN DRIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW