000 AXNT20 KNHC 021103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS VENEZUELA ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N70W IN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 82W IN PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 8N22W AND 4N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N15W 11N22W 7N35W 7N50W 6N53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA... INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND ACAPULCO MEXICO. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BEYOND CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 27N TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 95W INCLUDING IN PARTS OF FLORIDA. NUMEROUS STRONG HAS REACHED THE COASTAL PLAINS OF WESTERN EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...RELATED TO THE 12N94W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY... KIPN...AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS AT...FALFURRIAS AND ALICE... AT BEAUMONT...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA NORTHWARD...IN LOUISIANA IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS AND AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN MISSISSIPPI LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...IN ALABAMA LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...IN BROOKSVILLE...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 82W IN PANAMA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 80W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN PANAMA...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA... THROUGH 12N94W...TO 14N98W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N94W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK... MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 63W THROUGH 32N TO 20N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N60W TO 25N70W TO 29N81W IN FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N54W 25N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.29 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N26W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N32W...TO 18N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N51W 19N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N58W 29N81W STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N57.5W TO 25N70W TO 27N81W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N37W TO 25N42W TO 18N35W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT