000 AXNT20 KNHC 012355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N27W TO 09N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT. WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 18W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 24W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N65W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 62W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N72W TO 10N72W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N21W TO 04N27W TO 01N39W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LISTED ABOVE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 10W- 22W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 36W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N93W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N93W TO 28N94W. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...TO THE EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED E OF 91W. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 80W-92W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGHING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 83W IS SUPPORTING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 80W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA TO THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N. FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS... AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...A FEW SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO A RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION GENERATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING REMAINING W OF 77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT A FEW EXTEND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. TO THE NORTHEAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N63W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N57W SW TO 26N70W THEN NW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 71W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N62W TO 29N66W TO 28N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION NEAR 38N75W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN