000 AXNT20 KNHC 011724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 03N26W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD AND WEAK 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 24W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N62W TO 01N62W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 01N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO 11N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 04N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES LISTED ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 12W- 21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM HOUSTON TEXAS AT 29N95W TO 24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N92W. ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 80W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF TO SPREAD TO THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO BEYOND 11N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W- 86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 82W- 89W TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 27N68W TO 30N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N55W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 50W N OF 08N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N66W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA