000 AXNT20 KNHC 011104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SURINAME INTO EXTREME EASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 5N24W 3N35W 2N42W.TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 10W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W TO 1N38W TO 2N41W TO 2N44W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W FROM 20N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND WESTERN BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 22N90W 19N95W...IN THE WATERS AND ACROSS MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...KGVX...KVBS...KGUL...KGHB...KMDJ...AND KDLP. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGBK...KATP... KGRY...KIPN...KIKT...KVKY...AND KMIS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN SPOTTY...SOME NEAR LAKE CHARLES DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...AND ENDING COMPLETELY ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN TALLAHASSEE...AND AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO COASTAL COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA AND CUBA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE MOST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS TO GO BEFORE THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N95W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 29N70W 31N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N62W 28N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.68 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N29W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 29N45W 25N63W TO 28N79W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N58W 29N70W 31N80W COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 28N35W TO 27N38W TO 18N39W TO 12N60W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 29N70W TO 31N79W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT