000 AXNT20 KNHC 010601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER OF SURINAME AND GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SURINAME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO THE COAST TO THE EAST OF 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 5N24W...3N36W...2N43W 2N49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ALONG 92W/93W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92W...TO 20N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...KGBK...KGRY...AND KIKT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT... KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS...AND IN FALFURRIAS TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO COASTAL COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA AND CUBA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUD AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE MOST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS TO GO BEFORE THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N94W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N70W AND 32N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N63W 29N68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.68 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N31W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 28N48W 25N58W TO 27N70W AND 29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N60W 30N70W 32N80W COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 28N35W TO 15N45W TO 13N60W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 30N70W TO 31N77W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT