000 AXNT20 KNHC 312350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 11N25W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD AND WEAK 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 23W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N56W TO 08N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED LARGELY LOCATED INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SURINAME. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 54W-58W. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS TO THE NE OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 52W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N65W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 04N25W TO 01N37W TO 02N51W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES LISTED ABOVE...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE W AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 07W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W THAT EXTENDS A BROAD TROUGH AXIS S-SE TO A BASE NEAR 23N91W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N91W S-SW TO 25N92W TO 20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. FARTHER EAST...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LESSENS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME MORE DOMINANT E OF 90W WITH MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 85W-90W. CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA TO THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 69W IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOUDINESS...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...A FEW SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING REMAINING W OF 74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT A FEW EXTEND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTHEAST...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 38N61W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO 32N64W TO 30N70W TO 32N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 57W AND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 26N BETWEEN 58W-75W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN