000 AXNT20 KNHC 310605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN TPW IMAGERY IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 15W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL AND GAMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE 18W/19W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N24W TO 2N30W 3N43W...TO 2N56W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO THE SOUTH OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 5N40W 8N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N24W 4N28W 3N33W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 20N THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 93W. SCATTERED STRONG THAT WAS IN FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF 83W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...KGVX...KXIH...KGHB...AND KEIR. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBQX...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT... KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MARIANNA WESTWARD. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN SANTIAGO. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...CHANGING EVENTUALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.44 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SECOND AREA IS...S OF 17N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GIVING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IT REACHES JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N48W 25N59W TO 29N79W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...S OF 12N W OF 44W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA IS...FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 36W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT