000 AXNT20 KNHC 302348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOONAL FLOW AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 10W-24W. A 1007 MB LOW...LIKELY THE NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM OF THE WAVE...IS ANALYZED AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N16W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 16W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N45W TO 08N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED LARGELY WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-50W. VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENCOMPASSES A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN ATLC INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST PROMOTING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N58W TO 11N58W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 54W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 05N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N25W TO 02N45W TO 02N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES LISTED ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 49W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...HOWEVER E OF 90W FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT GIVING WAY TO BETTER DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS SW LOUISIANA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N92W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 27N92W TO 24N93W. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING N OF 22N... INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH E- SE SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT ON BOTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 74W. MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N90W TO 13N84W TO 09N84W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND JAMAICA THIS EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG WIND NOTED GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONGER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE...HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING REMAINING W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT A FEW EXTEND WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE. TO THE NORTHEAST...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N60W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO 31N67W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 32N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N72W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S- SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 28N44W THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 33W-42W. 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