000 AXNT20 KNHC 301756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COASTLINE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N16W TO 5N13W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BULGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING NEAR 42W S OF 7N...MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A REDUCTION IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN A DECREASE OF CONVECTION. THIS REDUCTION OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WAVE POSITION IN RELATION TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 5N. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N55W TO INLAND SURINAME NEAR 2N54W...MOVING W- NW NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 4N-8N. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N82W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN...ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO THE E PAC WATERS NEAR 4N81W. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER SENEGAL...THEN IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N16W TO 4N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N26W AND CONTINUES TO 5N40W...IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N46W TO 5N52W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 46W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SW ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTS OF A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N95W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA TO 27N92W IN THE GULF. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-92W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW IS FUELING THIS CONVECTION AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N95W TO 18N93W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 20 NM OF IT. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HR MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHES W-SW ROUGHLY TO E OF 89W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS REGION IS ALLOWING FOR S-SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. WEAKER WINDS NEAR 5 KT DOMINATE OVER THE REMAINDER WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM 17N67W TO 12N72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE SW BASIN...A TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW BASIN S OF 19N W OF 82W BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...TRADES WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN SATURDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... WESTWARD MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BASE OF A TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY SE WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 73W TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF PUERTO RICO S OF 22N BETWEEN 51W-65W. A ZONE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 36W-45W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 19N MAINLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR