000 AXNT20 KNHC 301102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN TPW IMAGERY IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 29/1800 UTC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N23W 3N31W 3N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 4W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A MEXICO RIDGE...MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED STRONG HAS BEEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 12N IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO 20N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS...KMZG AT 6000 FEET...KGVX AT 5000 FEET AND AT 6000 FEET...KGBK AT 500 FEET AND AT 5500 FEET...KGHB RANGING FROM 3400 FEET TO 6000 FEET...KSPR AT 6000 FEET...KMDJ AT 2000 FEET...KIKT AT 10000 FEET...KVOA AT 9500 FEET...KVKY AT 7500 FEET AND AT 8500 FEET... AND KMIS AT 7000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PALACIOS...BAY CITY...ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...AND IN CONROE TEXAS TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON. THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE BEAUMONT AREA. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PANAMA CITY. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER MARIANNA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS TALLAHASSEE. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN ST. PETERSBURG. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N74W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TROUGH...AND THEN FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.23 IN CURACAO...AND 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GIVING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IT REACHES JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N AT THE COAST OF CUBA TO 24N IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N53W TO 25N50W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 33N61W TO 31N68W BEYOND 32N75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... WAS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A CLOUD SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N28W...PASSING THROUGH 32N35W TO 29N41W 26N53W 27N70W AND 29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 54W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT