000 AXNT20 KNHC 292336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 9N37W TO 4N38W TO 0N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 9N48W TO 5N50W TO 0N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 47W- 52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N82W AND EXTENDS TO THE E PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 5N22W AND CONTINUES TO 4N36W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N39W TO 4N49W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 33N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S LOUISIANA AT 30N91W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-91W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF STATES E OF LOUISIANA TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE FLOW. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 36N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE W GULF PRODUCING NW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...AND SPREAD TO THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA ...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S MEXICO TO PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 27N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO 30N40W. A 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO 28N40W PRODUCING A LARGE BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER E CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA