000 AXNT20 KNHC 291804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W- 37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHERN BRAZILIAN COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 48W MOVING NEAR 15-20 KT. DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2S-6N W OF 42W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN TERRITORY VERY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING RAINSHOWERS TO THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS FORMERLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NW COLOMBIA HAS MOVED ALMOST IN ITS ENTIRETY TO E PACIFIC WATERS. CURRENTLY ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 3N82W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 1N- 11N BETWEEN 74W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W 4N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N24W AND CONTINUES TO 4N33W...IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N37W TO 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N E OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N- 5N BETWEEN 27W-37W AND FROM 3S-6N W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN LOUISIAN AND ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CONSISTS OF A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 33N92W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF ALONG 29N92W 27N94W TO 25N96W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 85W- 91W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A NARROW RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE SE STATES. CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHES W-SW ROUGHLY TO E OF 91W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS REGION IS ALLOWING FOR S-SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. WEAKER WINDS NEAR 5 KT DOMINATE OVER THE REMAINDER WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW BASIN ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM 18N66W TO 11N74W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-83W. OTHERWISE...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL BASIN IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 20-25 KT WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 15 KT ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... WESTWARD MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PATCHES ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL TEND TO SHEAR OFF THE TOPS OF THE SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY NOT ALLOWING FOR THEN TO ATTAIN A LONG DURATION OF OCCURRENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY SE WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W TO INCLUDE THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 18N64W TO 30N48W AND A LINE FROM 16N61W TO 30N29W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 14N MAINLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR