000 AXNT20 KNHC 290605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 08N MOVING NEAR 15 KT. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON IR SHORTWAVE IMAGERY ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 06N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 04N46W TO 04N50W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WILL BRING THE WAVE TO INLAND EASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA...ATTENDANT BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 69W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF THE WAVE TO 64W. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL COME UNDER A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IF ANY...TO A MINIMUM. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IT IS PRESENTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA S OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA ON SOUTHWARD AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO AT MOST ISOLATED IN CONVERGE N OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N30W TO 3N43W...THEN AGAIN W OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N43W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 0N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND ALSO S OF 02N W OF 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 07N W OF 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVELS...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MUCH OF THE GULF. A JET STREAM IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS AT 28N97W SE TO THE NE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NW WINDS OF 60-90 KT SW OF THIS JET STREAM BRANCH ARE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER EASTERN MEXICO SEWD TO THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND IT. ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW OF 1009 MB IS OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W WITH A TROUGH SW TO LAKE CHARLES...AND CONTINUING SW TO 28N95W. LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ALONG WITH SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHES WESTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG 30N AND W TO NEAR 88W. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY SE 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR S 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL DESTABILIZE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF ABOUT 80W. STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE IS SENDING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...SEWD TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 75W. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MAINLY OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE SE OF A LINE FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 12N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST W OF HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 35W AND 58W WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 10N52W. TO ITS E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 09N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO HISPANIOLA. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH A 60-90 KT WIND MAX EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO 24N57W...AND TO 27N47W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 360 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE S OF THE JET...AND STREAMING EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 32N40W TO 28N50W TO 26N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER AND NEAR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE