000 AXNT20 KNHC 282343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 29W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK NOTED ON METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 27W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS NEAR 42W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 42W-47W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 69W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. STRONG SW DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 79W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 4N27W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N30W TO 3N41W...THEN AGAIN W OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 91W- 98W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF STATES TO INCLUDE N FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE GULF WHILE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...AND THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN ...VENEZUELA...AND PANAMA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO 28N50W TO 29N75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N66W. A 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 26N50W PRODUCING A LARGE BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER E CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA