000 AXNT20 KNHC 281051 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 CORRECTED CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION SECOND WAVE PARAGRAPH TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 8N37W TO 01N38W...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE...WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST SIX OF HOURS...HOWEVER ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N. TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST PASSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N61W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 11N62W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN 120 NM W OF ITS AXIS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N75W TO INLAND THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE STRONG TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N14W TO 6N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES TO 04N25W TO 03N37W. THE AXIS RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 02N40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 24N-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 03N42W TO INLAND THE COAST AT 03N51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY EARLIER NOTED ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF ARE DISSIPATING. THE CULPRIT DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N95W. AMPLE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF AS WELL AS PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER FAR N CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE WSW TO NEAR 28N94W. E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN ...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO COLOMBIA AT 11N74W. ABUNDANT MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALSO E OF THIS LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI SW TO NW COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. ...HISPANIOLA... A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THAT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY APPROACH THE SE PART OF THE ISLAND LATE WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N56W WITH A RIDE EXTENDING WSW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W TO NEAR 29N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 34N28W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 28N50W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC E OF ABOUT 50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING EASTWARD TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 51W. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING GENERATED BY A STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CARIBBEAN TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 25N70W WITH A TROUGH SW TO HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE