000 AXNT20 KNHC 270605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 01N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND TRACES OF LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 02N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 06N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO INLAND THE COAST OF S AMERICA AT THE BORDER OF GUYANA AND SURINAME. THE WAVE IS ALSO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 50W-55W AS WAS OBSERVED IN LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY...AND AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN IR SHORTWAVE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N69W SSW INLAND VENEZUELA AT 12N70W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO THE S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N21W TO 04N30W WHERE IT ENDS BRIEFLY. IT RESUMES AT 02N34W TO EQUATOR AT 40W...AND TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO 04N ELSEWHERE W OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC HIGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALSO IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 92W/93W. AT THE SURFACE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY AND E-SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS INDUCING SE 15-20 KT WINDS THERE. A JET STREAM BRANCH CROSSING THE NW GULF IS IS AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SECTIONS. ISOLATED STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING SE ARE APPROACHING THE SE TEXAS COAST. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER NE MEXICO AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MOVING E. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIR WITH JUST SMALL POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NW UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SEA W OF 79W. NW TO N STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SEA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLOUD FREE THERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD IN THE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RATHER SHARP AXIS IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO 14N75W AND TO ACROSS NW COLOMBIA. A NE TO SW JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION... AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. DIURNAL TYPE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED AS DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FILTER IN OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE BASIN AT 33N69.5W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO NE FLORIDA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W SW TO 26N65W TO 26N71W...WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N69W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT WHILE ALSO ENHANCING LIFT ALONG AND NEAR ITS WESTERN SEGMENT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 34N32W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 28N53W. IT IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLC. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A GALE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W AND 60W WITH ITS MEAN CENTER AT 14N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 35W WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT IN THAT AREA KEEPING A CAP ON MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE