000 AXNT20 KNHC 261044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO 07N28W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AT THIS TIME. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND TRACES OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 26W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N49W TO 10N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 45W- 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 46W- 52W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N65W TO 12N64W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-68W ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 61W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N24W TO 03N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 07W- 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N95W AND A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF HOWEVER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN GULF...NE GULF WATERS...AND FAR WESTERN GULF LARGELY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. E-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 72W. TO THE WEST OF 72W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-83W DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 08N/09N. FARTHER EAST...THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED S OF 12N ALONG 64W. MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONGER WINDS NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 34N65W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W SW TO 28N70W TO 27N76W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR COCOA BEACH AND MEANDERING NORTHWESTWARD TO 32N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W. EAST OF 65W...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N33W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN