000 AXNT20 KNHC 260554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N24W TO 08N25W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AT THIS TIME. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND TRACES OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 22W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N47W TO 10N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 44W- 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 45W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N64W TO 13N63W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE S OF 13N BETWEEN 59W-66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 61W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 03N25W TO 01N32W TO 03N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 06W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 22W- 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N94W AND A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF HOWEVER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND FAR WESTERN GULF LARGELY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. E-SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ALOFT THIS EVENING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 72W. TO THE WEST OF 72W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED S OF 13N ALONG 63W. MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA. OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONGER WINDS NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 35N67W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N79W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W SW TO 28N74W TO 28N80W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL THE NORTHWARD MEANDERING NORTHWARD TO THE 32N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 24N THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ONCE EAST OF 65W...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N33W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN