000 AXNT20 KNHC 251045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N42W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 39W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N58W TO 12N57W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAXIMUM VALUES S OF 12N BETWEEN 55W-62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 53W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 02N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO 04N41W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 22W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION S OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W PROMOTES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 76W. TO THE WEST OF 76W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-73W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A GENERALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME COAST NEAR 41N61W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO 30N70W THAT LINKS UP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 995 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N62W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO 30N75W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N72W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN EXTENSION OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N31W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN