000 AXNT20 KNHC 241051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N33W TO 10N31W MOVING W AT 30 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 28W-35W. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 06N BETWEEN 27W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N53W TO 13N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAXIMUM VALUES S OF 11N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 07N16W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 01N27W TO 02N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 08W- 27W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 45W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 27W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N95W TO 32N89W THIS MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N87W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE GULF WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 77W. TO THE WEST OF 77W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED MAINLY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PERSISTING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SETUP IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 39N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO 30N73W TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 32N...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N72W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 64W-74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 27N. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N33W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN