000 AXNT20 KNHC 240543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N30W TO 09N28W MOVING W AT 30 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 27W-32W. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 26W- 35W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N51W TO 13N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAXIMUM VALUES S OF 11N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 02N29W TO 01N45W TO 02N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 26W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 94W THIS EVENING. WHILE GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WEST OF 94W UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE GULF WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ALOFT THIS EVENING WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 76W. TO THE WEST OF 76W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 18N BETWEEN 76W- 85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N75W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 67W- 76W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS PERSISTING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SETUP IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION REMAINS IN THE AREA ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS FROM 33N72 TO 24N77W TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 32N...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 63W-74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N33W. THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN