000 AXNT20 KNHC 240005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 5N28W. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 15 KT DURING THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. INSTEAD...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 1S-9N BETWEEN 20W-32W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 50W MOVING APPROXIMATELY AT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR WHICH ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED MAINLY ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE AXIS EXTENDING TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N14W AND CONTINUES TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS RESUMES WEST OF THIS WAVE NEAR 2N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N40W TO 1S50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 30W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N87W. SURFACE RIDGING IS MAINTAINING WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE WHOLE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHRE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE FAR WEST ATLC DEEPENS INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER BASIN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALSO LINKED TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N73W TO WEST OF HAITI NEAR 19N73W. THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...HISPAIOLA AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS REGION EXTENDING 120 NM OFF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 15 KT...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING THREATS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RELATED TO A MID TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. A SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT REMAINS IN THE AREA ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AS A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ENTER THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE CONUS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC DEEPING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS...CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N73W TO 19N73W. NE OF THE TROUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF SCATERRED CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 64W-71W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR