000 AXNT20 KNHC 231804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION HAS BEEN MOVED MORE TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE TPW IMAGERY...AND LIGHTNING DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. THE WAVE IS RIDING THE CUSP OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED IN SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPOSITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG 10N AND TOWARD AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THAT IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A BROAD MIDDLE LATITUDE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WAVE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY...AND IT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED TRADE WINDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE 24W/25W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1N27W 1N31W 1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 11W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 97W FROM TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 94W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 97W RIDGE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 27N75W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO JAMAICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N79W...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N80W OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W FROM 18N IN HAITI...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 24N. THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET REMAINS ACTIVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 27N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 19N71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 16N75W TO 15N81W...AND FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W... AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...BEYOND 83W AT THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT 75W TROUGH MOVES TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND REACHES IT BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 30N46W 28N58W 27N67W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 47W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT