000 AXNT20 KNHC 230005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N15W TO 2N15W. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A MORE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WINDS IS BEING NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W. THE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AT 10-15 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 9N-41W TO 2N42W WHICH IS MOVING NEAR 10-15 KT. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN INVERTED-V PATTERN OF THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT 700 HPA WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVES HAVE THEIR STRONGEST SIGNAL. EVEN THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO SSMI TPW IMAGERY...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED MAINLY ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE AXIS EXTENDING TO 9N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 0N30W TO 1N37W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FROM 1N42W TO 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 19W-39W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N88W. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING WINDS OF 5 KT OVER THE NE GULF AND E-SE WIND OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE WHOLE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WEST ATLC AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N68W TO 19N70W. A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL JAMAICA. DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N BETWEEN W OF 78W. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING THREATS. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N68W TO 19N70W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT STALL. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE PRIOR TWO SECTIONS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO 27N56W...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 13N. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING ANCHORED BY THREE HIGHS...A 1020 MB HIGH JUST N OF FREEPORT NEAR 27N78W...A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 40N33W. THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-76W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR