000 AXNT20 KNHC 221049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FROM 15N18W TO 10N19W HAS DISSIPATED. THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE WAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC LATER TODAY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 38W BETWEEN 2N-9N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 8W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO TO ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC AND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS UPPER JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 20N71W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE E TIP OF CUBA...PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE WESTERLY UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 28N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 26N68W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N59W ALONG 23N65W TO 21N70W. WESTERLY UPPER JET THAT REMAINS FROM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 65W-75W INCLUDING THE E TIP OF CUBA AND ALL OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N68W TO BEYOND 32N48W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N63W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S ALONG 27N AND WEAKEN LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NW ATLC TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE THROUGH W ATLC N OF 27N SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW