000 AXNT20 KNHC 220601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N18W TO 10N19W DRIFTING W NEAR 5 KT. THIS WAVE IS THE NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER WHILE THE MAIN WAVE LOCATION IS TO THE S AND INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE N WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30W BETWEEN 1N-8N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N- 8N BETWEEN 6W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO TO ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N93W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS UPPER JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 20N71W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDING THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO...ALL OF HISPANIOLA...THE E TIP OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE APPROACH THE ISLAND FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N62W TO 26N71W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W ALONG 23N61W 21N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS FROM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 26N55W THEN WITHIN 150 NM FROM 26N55W TO BEYOND 32N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N74W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S ALONG 27N AND WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NW ATLC THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE THROUGH W ATLC N OF 27N SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW