000
AXNT20 KNHC 211038
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N13W TO 2N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 8N29W TO 3N31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 
20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 6N-11N E OF 21W TO INLAND 
OVER W AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO 
TO ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES 
GIVING MOST OF THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 19N94W GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED 
BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC AND A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE 
NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE W 
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N 
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 
FROM ACROSS THE YUCATAN NEAR 17N88W ALONG 18N78W INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W INCLUDING PUERTO 
RICO...ALL OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA E OF 78W...JAMAICA...AND 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
9N/10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N 
BETWEEN 74W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE 
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER 
THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE ISLAND BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE FRI. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
THROUGH FRI. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE AREA 
BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO 27N64W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 
26N70W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N68W TO 21N73W. 
WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS FROM ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W 
ALONG 25N57W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC 
W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W. A SECOND 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED WELL N 
OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S ALONG 27N 
AND WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK E/W FRONT SAGS INTO 
THE N WATERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW