000
AXNT20 KNHC 210548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N13W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 1N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 9N25W 
ALONG 7N28W TO 4N29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-
19W INCLUDING THE W COAST OF AFRICA.  

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE MOVING W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 
21N E OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 
1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC AND A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH OVER SW 
GEORGIA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE W COAST OF THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL JUST N OF THE AREA WITH 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM THE 
MONA PASSAGE ALONG 16N76W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W 
INCLUDING THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO...ALL OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA 
E OF 80W...JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND MOST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THIS IS 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES 
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS 
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
ISLAND TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND LATE FRI. 
THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH 
FRI. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE AREA 
BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO 28N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 
26N71W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N66W TO 21N70W. 
WESTERLY UPPER JET REMAINS FROM ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W 
ALONG 22N61W TO 27N56W THEN N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N76W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF 
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT S ALONG 27N AND 
WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK E/W FRONT SAGS INTO THE N 
WATERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW