000 AXNT20 KNHC 210004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2S36W 2S38W...INTO BRAZIL AND BEYOND 3S42W ALONG ITS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N26W 7N28W 4N29W BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN AFRICA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND 30N IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPAN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N97W IN MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. STATION KBBF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH HAZE FOR MANY OF ITS PAST OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N83W 16N70W BEYOND 18N60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 14N83W 18N60W LINE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N61W 17N70W 14N80W 11N86W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 4.12 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.62 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.13 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W TO 6N79W... TO WESTERN PANAMA AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N...AND ACROSS PARTS OF PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N61W 17N70W 14N80W 11N86W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. RAIN AND A MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...IN SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF 24 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS-TO CUBA TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST TROUGH IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROUGH AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 26N64W 23N68W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N66W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N65W 23N69W 21N71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N62W 20N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AND ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W 27N56W 22N65W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N77W... ACROSS GUATEMALA AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 16N91W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N35W 22N35W 17N39W 10N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...PASSING THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N61W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1026 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N28W...AND TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT