000 AXNT20 KNHC 201800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AFRICA WHILE PORTIONS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF BRAZIL. OF NOTE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 03N31W TO 09N27W WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NOTED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 05N28W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LARGELY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW PROMOTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 24W-30W. EXAMINING PAST GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND WIND ANALYSES AT THE 310K...315K...AND 320K LEVELS...THE TROUGH IS LARGELY MADE UP OF MID-LATITUDE ENERGY THAT HAS ROUNDED A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE ENERGY REMAINING IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS. THE OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM 35N80W SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N83W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N- 22N BETWEEN 65W-88W...INCLUDING CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...S OF 16N...DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA WHERE WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS KEEPING HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N59W TO 30N63W THAT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT... MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGHING IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N53W TO 20N69W TO 20N80W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N80W. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN