000 AXNT20 KNHC 201034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 9N23W TO 2N26W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 5N-8N. A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 4S31W. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE DISRUPTING THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF S OF 23N WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE N GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF 90W AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND A WEAKER 1022 MB HIGH NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL SINK S AND SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N83W TO 17N86W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER COSTA RICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W ALONG 17N79W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 17N88W INCLUDING THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA... JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES E OF 70W. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N69W TO 27N73W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS TO 28N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N74W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N78W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 29N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N65W ALONG 24N68W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N7W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N BETWEEN 63W-73W TO THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N40W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N12W TO 30N21W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND FRONT ALONG 30N. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE TO 27N AND WEAKEN THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW