000 AXNT20 KNHC 192357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N58W TO 11N58W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 02N-12 BETWEEN 54W-60W COINCIDING WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF A VERY SUBTLE 700 MB SIGNAL PROPAGATING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS INDICATED OVER GUYANA AND FRENCH GUIANA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS VENEZUELA TUE AND WED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W THROUGH 06N20W TO 01N36W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 10W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE AND OVERALL DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF N OF 24N THIS EVENING AS RESIDUAL MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING WANES...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 92W S OF 24N. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THIS GULF THIS EVENING AND THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN PRECIPITATION-WISE IS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 24N BETWEEN 78W-87W IN PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL END OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE/TROUGH AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHERE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE APPROACHING 100 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W/COSTA RICA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...APPROACHING 100 KT...ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WERE ADVECTING COPIUS AMOUNTS OF MID-TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST- NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH 20N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N...DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COASTLINE WHERE WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE/SURFACE TROUGH...MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS ENHANCED OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FAIRLY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LATE SEASON BROAD DEEP MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N63W TO 29N68W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WAS OCCURRING OVER THE SW N ATLC S OF 26N W OF 60W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AXIS/ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO 27N50W TO 28N60W. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN PORTUGAL TO 33N20W TO 34N28W PUSHING SOUTHWARD WILL IMPACT THE NE CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB