000 AXNT20 KNHC 191756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N57W TO 11N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 02N-12 BETWEEN 54W-60W COINCIDING WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF A VERY SUBTLE 700 MB SIGNAL PROPAGATING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 09N BETWEEN 55W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N20W TO 01N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W...S OF 05N BETWEEN 08W- 14W...AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 15W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING WANES...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. MOSTLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THIS GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN PRECIPITATION-WISE IS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 24N BETWEEN 78W-87W DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA E-NE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SHEAR LINE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-90W...INCLUDING CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N87W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DROPPING AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N...DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COASTLINE WHERE WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE AND MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N63W TO 29N68W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N74W THEN MEANDERING W-SW AS A SHEAR LINE TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A LARGE AREA SURROUNDING THE SHEAR LINE FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 65W- 87W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 53W-65W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO 26N43W TO 28N59W. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN PORTUGAL TO 34N17W TO 35N25W THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL IMPACT THE NE CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN