000 AXNT20 KNHC 190601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N22W TO 1N35W. A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 5S32W WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8W-11W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA AND E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S AND SW OVER THE AREA MON THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A SHEARLINE ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO 21N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-80W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE SHEARLINE AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 20N. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE BAHAMAS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 65W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SHEARLINE WILL DRIFT NW AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA AND THEN PREVAIL ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS MON THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W ALONG 27N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEARLINE ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE BAHAMAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W ALONG 29N53W TO 28N59W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING W OF THE AZORES ALONG 32N36W TO 23N51W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH TUE WHILE THE SHEARLINE WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MON AND SHIFT S TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW