000 AXNT20 KNHC 182340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N53W TO 13N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 49W-56W COINCIDING WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF A VERY SUBTLE 700 MB SIGNAL PROPAGATING WESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 51W-55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 49W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 05N23W TO 02N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 14W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 07N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY BROAD DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 23N97W OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A THIN RIBBON OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF FROM 24N-28N WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE IS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N87W. GENERALLY N OF 24N...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ONLY ACTIVE AREA OF WEATHER THIS EVENING IS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W- 90W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA FROM 22N79W TO 21N86W. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-89W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N83W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING PROVIDING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COASTLINE WHERE WINDS WILL REACH A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TO HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W TO 31N69W BECOMING STATION TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N79W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS OCCURRING S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-82W EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N52W SUPPORTING A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N53W. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-60W. OTHERWISE...A PLUME OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED FROM 13N-30N BETWEEN 30W-47W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN ATLC. THE SW NORTH ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH TO OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN