000 AXNT20 KNHC 181031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N49W TO 1N49W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE A SLIGHT MOISTURE REDUCTION WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A WEAK SIGNAL OF IT AT 700 MB. STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N18W TO 2N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 2N33W AND CONTINUES TO 5N44W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 27W- 33W. A 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 5S28W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW TO 9S23W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MODERATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 2S-11S BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SAME REGION BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED OVER THE SE BASIN S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-87W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 25N73W EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N-NE INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 19N W OF 78W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED TO HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE A MOIST AIRMASS IS ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT WITHIN 100 NM OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA COASTLINE WHERE WINDS REACH A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ADVECTED TO HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED KEEPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N69W EXTENDING SW TO 25N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS OF CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 994 MB LOW NEAR 35N51W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 34W-47W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN ATLC. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TUE WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN THROUGH MON AND SHIFT S TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR