000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 3N47W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE A MOISTURE REDUCTION WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A WEAK SIGNAL OF IT AT 700 MB. STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 140 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N18W TO 3N23W. A 1008 MB LOW IS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 5S29W WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 0S35W AND CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN A LINE FROM 6N11W TO 1S21W AND A LINE FROM 10N14W TO 4N22W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5S-9S BETWEEN 25W-30W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 3S-9S BETWEEN 23W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SAME REGION BEING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH AT THE BORDER BETWEEN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED OVER THE SE BASIN S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 26N73W EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N-NE INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 78W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING ADVECTED TO HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT WITHIN 100 NM OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA COASTLINE WHERE WINDS REACH A MAX OF 20 KT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ADVECTED TO HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED KEEPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N70W EXTENDING SW TO 26N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 994 MB LOW NEAR 35N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N51W TO 25N55W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 30N38W TO 23N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE FRONT FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 35W- 50W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN ATLC. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TUE WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN THROUGH MON AND SHIFT S TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR