000 AXNT20 KNHC 171045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N43W TO 0N45W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...WITH NO FAVORABLE LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N19W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N24W AND CONTINUES TO 1S31W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S40W. CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 2N BETWEEN 8W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 17W-27W AND FROM 4S-8S BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE STATES INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS...ONE OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W AND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED OVER THE NW AND SE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N72W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO NORTH- CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N83W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTING DATA INDICATING TSTMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ALOFT...A RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA BEING ENHANCED BY MOIST AIR WHILE ELSEWHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE NW BASIN WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS REACH 20 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOIST AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE MOISTURE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N72W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N71W SW TO 21N76W AND A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO 25N80W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N36W SW TO 22N43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 11N NEAR 45W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR