000 AXNT20 KNHC 170602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 1N44W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WITH NO FAVORABLE LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 260 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N19W TO 1N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N26W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 2N BETWEEN 5W-13W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE STATES INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP LAYER DRY ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-20 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED OVER THE NW AND SE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N73W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 22N80W TO 20N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTING DATA INDICATING TSTMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ALOFT...A RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE NW BASIN WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 140 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS REACH 20 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N73W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 20N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N71W SW TO 21N75W AND A LINE FROM 30N77W SW TO 26N80W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N36W SW TO 22N45W WHERE IT STARTS VANISHING TO 20N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 11N NEAR 45W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR