000 AXNT20 KNHC 162338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 1N42W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 5N34W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N39W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 2N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N91W. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE AND ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH SUN. STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S AND SW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FAR W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CUBA NEAR 23N81W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT S OF 21N IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE CUBA E OF THE FRONT...PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA. FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS CUBA BEFORE STALLING LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN ON SAT. FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT NW AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND IN PART DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SUN WHILE THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 30N AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND 32N71W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 20N BETWEEN 53W-74W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N47W SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N41W 21N55W 23N64W TO 29N70W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRIER AIR AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH THE AZORES TO 20N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING ACROSS W CUBA WHILE MOVING SE THROUGH BAHAMAS AND ATLC WATERS REACHING FROM 31N73W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 77W TO W CUBA SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAK N PORTION SHIFTS SLOWLY SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW