000 AXNT20 KNHC 160604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N37W 2N38W 3S40W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 3N25W 6N33W 4N36W. THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N39W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...TO 2S45W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 1S BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N/23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N81W 24N90W 20N96W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO BELIZE. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N81W 20N96W LINE...COVERING FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W 27N78W 25N81W 19N87W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO SITE...KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLY LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...FROM BROOKSVILLE SOUTHWARD. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 22N85W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...THE HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 29N89W TO 20N97W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN REINFORCED. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 22N52W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N60W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N64W...BEYOND NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N40W TO 24N50W 24N60W AND TO 32N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 60 NM TO 75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF 13N60W 14N70W 16N80W 17N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.31 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO... 0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W... ACROSS PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W AT THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN A CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. OTHER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE OBSERVING STATIONS THAT AROUND THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB AND AT 500 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A COLD FRONT FROM 22N84W TO 17N87W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W TO 24N55W TO 31N68W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT