000 AXNT20 KNHC 152351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 00N37W MOVING WEST AT 10- 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS BROAD TURNING AS SEEN IN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT FAIRLY LOW-LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W THEN CONTINUES TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N17W TO 5N33W...BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 2N38W AND ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17N AND 24W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO WEST AFRICA EAST OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 25N AND 30N. WINDS DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT FROM THE 1610Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER AND 30 KT FROM COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 21Z IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE BASIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS. STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS THERE RECENTLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS WEAK IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY...NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SMALL AREA OF STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER CUBA... HISPANIOLA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...NICARAGUA HAS BEEN INDUCED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS... CUBA...THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER HISPANIOLA HAS BEEN INDUCED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER FROM 32N40W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW AT 30N42W TO 25N54W TO 32N68W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N46W. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ANTICIPATED...THE FRONT WILL PUSH EQUATORWARD BUT NOT MUCH EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...RATHER LOW LATITUDE FOR SUCH A LATE SEASON FRONT. IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE FLORIDA BORDER NORTH OF 27N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING INDUCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 32N76W BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH SE TO S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA