000 AXNT20 KNHC 142347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 14/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N90W SW TO 22N93W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE OCCURRING S OF 25N WEST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/1536 UTC CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04282W TO 12N27W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED-V PRESENTATION THAT COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING...AND A POLEWARD INCREASE OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 27W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 27W-32W...AND REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 06N15W TO 04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 03N20W TO 04N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 12W-18W...AND FROM 02N- 07N BETWEEN 27W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 14/2100 UTC INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI EXTENDING SW TO 22N93W THEN SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT N OF 29N...WITH INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N87W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 22N87W AND NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W. THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY N OF 24N W OF 81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IN WAKE OF THE FRONT... RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS REMAINING AND A HINT OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE BASIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO ENHANCE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS S OF 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 08N. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N77W SE TO 24N73W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N77W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THIS AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY LARGE FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 70W-79W WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N72W THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SE TO 25N54W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N47W SUPPORTS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 38N45W. THE ASSOCIATED PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N52W WESTWARD TO 32N59W AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FURTHER INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY FRONT ALONG 30N IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N37W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER E OF 45W THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN