000 AXNT20 KNHC 141744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF REGION. THIS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N90W TO NEAR POZA RICA MEXICO. IT WILL REACH FROM ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...FROM S FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF THE FRONT INTO THE SW GULF THROUGH THU WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12- 14 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. VERACRUZ IS NOW REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N26W TO 04N27W MOVING WEST AT 10- 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE AXIS MEETS THE ITCZ MAINLY FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING AND 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. SHIP CALL SIGN VRL17 REPORTED E WINDS OF 22 KT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... MOST OF THE THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N29W TO 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 48W INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 40-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ADJACENT MEXICAN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HAS WEEKEND CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 23N92W TO 18N93W. A SECOND TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STRETCHES FROM 30N87W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N87W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON THU WHILE THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A WIDE BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND COVERS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 24.5N86W. ALOFT...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW PRES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED JUST S OF CUBA AND BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU MORNING...BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 20N THROUGH FRI. ALOFT...A RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 18N AND E OF 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE WINDS FLOW TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS YESTERDAY MOVED WESTWARD AND NOW IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL SE WIND FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSPORTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE SAME WIND FLOW...DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N70W. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THU. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY FRI. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 24N50W. A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL...A TROUGH LIES NEAR PARALLEL TO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 21N68W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WITH MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10.5N36W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR